Should Science Be More Confident?

Fake experts, real science, and the cost of false hope

Hi all,

A different type of post this time. More of an opinion piece, really.

The line of thought for this piece comes from the recent articles I’ve written about conspiracy theories. Closely related to this is misinformation. Misinformation is false or misleading information shared without the intent to deceive. Think about when a grandmother shares a post about a miracle fruit juice that supposedly melts away belly fat (sorry oma 😛). It doesn’t, but she shares it with good intentions.

Flavored water :)

But what worries me more is the more extreme side of this: people who do have an agenda, which is often financial, and present themselves as trusted experts. I recently came across someone like this, a so-called “doctor” of natural medicine¹. This person has an office, does presentations, talks on local TV shows and has a big social media presence in the ABC islands. His message? Hormonal imbalance is the root of all your problems. And conveniently, he can check your hormone levels for 200 guilders (about 120 dollars) and offer personalised advice for 100 guilders (60 dollars). This isn’t counting what ever he prescribes.

These so called doctors are tactical about it too, they say things like: “Do you need a second opinion?” - to sound reasonable and not pushy. This person has been doing this for 40 years. And from what I have seen from the social media posts this person has been a doctor, psychologist, physiotherapist, nutritionist, endocrinologist... I mean, this person is a one-man hospital.

Here’s the problem: imagine a person who is truly sick. Maybe even terminally ill. A medical doctor gives them a difficult but honest diagnosis. Then that patient, scrolling through Facebook, sees this persons post about hormonal imbalance and thinks: What if he's right? What if there’s hope? So they pay the money, get the “advice,” buy the pills. And lose not only their money but also valuable time they don’t have. That makes me furious.

This led me to think more broadly: what’s the key difference between science-based medical doctors and so called experts of alternative medicine doctors?

I believe it’s this: Doctors are behind the truth. They work within a system grounded in evidence, testing, and doubt. They don’t promise miracles. They don’t speak in absolutes. Instead, they say things like:

“There’s some evidence that doing X might help improve Y.”
“We think this is the most likely explanation, but let’s run more tests.”

That’s not weakness. That’s intellectual honesty.

We — as scientists — follow a method. We generate hypotheses, test them, analyze data, and revise our understanding. A study can take months but sometimes it can also take years (longitudinal studies). And even then, we don’t say, “This is the answer.” We say: This is the best explanation we have so far, based on the evidence.

The scientific method is not a straight path from question to answer. It s a cyclical and ongoing process. Each step, from observation and hypothesis formation to experimentation and drawing conclusions, leads naturally to new questions and further investigations.

Maybe a more tangible example: when you go to your general practitioner, your doctor doesn’t have a huge poster in his room screaming “hormonal imbalances causes Y”, right? Your doctor will look at your history, ask questions, rule things out, (and if needed run lab work, consult with other specialists) and eventually offer a working diagnosis that is statistically most likely. That’s what science is: probability, not certainty. And I get it! it isn’t sexy like Mr. Doctor of Natural Medicine, who tells you immediately it’s hormone imbalance. The language of real scientists is cautious, probabilistic language. It doesn’t sell one-fixer smoothies or supplements.

But it’s real. And it saves lives.

So, this so called expert will continue to sell his hormone tests and acupuncture practices. Why? Because he is confident, charismatic, and offers an immediate answer. And while your doctor can’t tell you immediately why something occurs, at least they’re honest and they’re seeking the truth with you.

And there is value in that.

Have a great week!

1. Let’s be clear. I’m always open to the possibility that, if research supports it, natural product might actually help. And I’m all for healthy living, eating well, getting your vegetables and fruits. What I’m against is people using the idea of “natural medicine” to sell false hope.